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Syrien: Aktuelle politische Situation + ihr..
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NEUER BEITRAG17.12.2023, 17:55 Uhr
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Syrien: Aktuelle politische Situation + ihre Hintergründe Kassioun heute:

Kassioun Editorial 1153: “Step for Step”… What’s Hidden May be Worse!

Syrian and international parties continue to talk about what they call the “step for step” plan. In parallel, there continue to be media-political analyses and readouts, classifying this or that detail of what is happening in and around Syria as part of the implementation of said plan. However, the unanswered question remains: What is this “step for step”?

Even when the question is directed at the UN Special Envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, who is supposed to be the owner of this plan, and after more than a year since first proposing it, he does not have (or does not provide) any concrete response about its nature or elements. This actually means “what is hidden may be worse”.

Nevertheless, it is not difficult to understand the content of this plan, based on knowing who is behind it and what their interests are. It is no secret that the main supporter of the “step for step” is the US, whose main effort, throughout the years of the crisis, was focused on prolonging and deepening it, leading to ending any role for Syria, and ending Syria itself if possible.

It suffices to recall what Washington’s Syrian envoy, James Jeffrey, said, who considered that “stalemate is stability” is what is required in Syria, and that his mission was to “turn Syria into a quagmire for the Russians”. These words sum up the US political reality, not only towards Syria, but also towards the entire world. The whole world is a single battlefield that must be ignited through endless hybrid wars in defense of the crumbling US hegemony and to evade the capitalist crisis in its current phase.

Returning to the “step for step”, in essence it is not far from what Jeffrey has said. It is a plan to perpetuate, deepen, and “stabilize chaos”. Also, the slogan “step for step” is nothing but a development of the Western slogan “changing the regime’s behavior”, instead of a political solution and instead of 2254. That is, “step for step”, even if those who push for it disguise themselves with 2254, it is in fact a completely different track. It has nothing to do with the resolution, and in fact it is a path completely opposite to that of the political solution through 2254, the implementation of which guarantees reunifying Syria and the Syrian people, the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria, and launching political change based on consensus among Syrians based on the will of the Syrian people.

Quite contrarily, “step for step” is a series of under-the-table deals, disguised by the UNSC resolution, and suggesting to Syrian extremists that it is ready to give them “fulfillment” in exchange for certain concessions. These concessions would not be made to the Syrian people, but to those countries in particular, primarily Washington, and with it, of course, the Zionist entity as a secret party to the deal, but possibly not-so-secretly at a later stage.

The essence of the plan is preventing the political solution and deepening and perpetuating the division, to maintain the existing state of paralysis in Syria and in its regional role during the most historical moments in which this role should be present, and to maintain and perpetuate the “stalemate” to complete the displacement of as many Syrians as possible, in the hope that there will no longer be a material carrier for Syria’s survival as a state.

Economists say that the dollar financial pyramid, at its best, is based on a ratio between inflationary and real of 100 to 1. This means that the US’ actual economic size at the global level is in fact 1% of the apparent weight that it still occupies. The same applies to the political plans and projects adopted by Washington, from the “Arab NATO” to the “Abraham Accords” to the “Deal of the Century” to the “Indian-Middle East-European Corridor”, and others, all the way to “step for step”. The real weight of these projects on the ground does not exceed at best 1% of their political media size.

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NEUER BEITRAG21.01.2024, 20:08 Uhr
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Syrien: Aktuelle politische Situation + ihre Hintergründe Kassioun heute:

Kassioun Editorial 1158: What is Meant by “Safe Zones”?

Violence and military activity started in Syria less than a year after protests began in March 2011. As violence gradually dominated, ending up completely taking over the scene, expressions such as “safe zones”, “buffer zones”, and “no-fly zones” started emerging. Individuals and entities categorized as Syrian opposition were the first to demand them. Majority of those individuals and entities were, in reality, implementers of regional and international agendas. They helped and offered the pretexts necessary to destroy, undermine, and change the path of the popular movement. In the end, they helped their counterparts of extremists within the regime to prevent the required and deserved process of national democratic change.

Years later, Turkey employed the “buffer zone” and “safe zone” expressions and used them for military incursion and occupation of parts of Syrian territory in the northwest and northeast, under the pretext of defending Turkish national security.

Now, there are voices rising, albeit still limited in reach and influence, calling for a “buffer/safe” zone in southern Syria, under the pretext of combatting drug trade and defending Jordanian national security.

It goes without saying that every country has the right to look for appropriate ways to protect its national security, especially when it borders a country experiencing one of the worst and deepest crises in the 21st century, and is dominated by chaos and inhumane living conditions that open the door to all adversities and risks.

However, it also goes without saying that any country that wants to defend its national security, must take into consideration two things. The first thing is abiding by international law, and mainly not attacking the sovereignty of other countries or other peoples. The second is looking for means that secure real solutions and do not lead to exacerbation of crises and risks, for its neighbors or for itself.

If we assume that each of Turkey, Iraq, and Jordan, will establish “safe zones” – safe for them – within Syrian territory, of a 30 km depth, and the length of borders with each of them is 909 km, 599 km, and 37km, respectively, then the total area of those supposed “safe zones” is 56,490 sq km, which is more than 30% of the total area of Syria. If we add to that the fact there is already de facto partition of Syria, that will lead to fragmenting Syria and completely ending it. Currently, putting aside talk about the supposed “safe zones”, Syrian territory has approximately seven distinct areas: areas controlling by the Syrian regime, Idlib and part of its surroundings where al-Nusra Front is present, the Turkish occupation and with it the “National Army” areas, the northeast and within it the US occupation, al-Tanf area and within it the American and British bases, southern Syria areas with all its complexities and details, and the Syrian Golan under “Israeli” occupation.

Going back to the main issue, the countries neighboring Syria that want to legally and practically maintain their security have two tools: the first can be said to be emergency tools, and the second is strategic.

As for the first tools, they indeed include establishing “safe zones”. However, those should not be established on Syrian territory, but within the borders of the countries that feel they are under threat. These zones could be 30 km deep or 100 km, if those countries wish. The ability of any country to secure part of their territory and perfectly turning it in a safe space and a monitory space, is a thousand time easier than securing itself by getting involved within the territory of another country. This is especially so since the types of threats in question do not include any intention or ability of any Syrian side to occupy part of the neighboring country, for example. The issues at question are focused on narcotics and terrorism.

For example, Jordan can establish a buffer zone in its northern territory, which are already scarcely populated areas, which makes the task easier. Then Jordan can sever the narcotic smugglings networks, which are essential for the smuggling process and without which drug smuggling cannot be completed. Then the threat is over, at least for the most part.

As for the second tool – the strategic one – it is the actual involvement in pushing towards real stability in Syria, through a comprehensive political solution on the basis of UNSC Resolution 2254. This requires severing connection with American-British and Zionist projects in our region, including the “step for step” project and the like. Syria will continue to be a dangerous place for its people and its neighbors as long as its crisis continues, and as long as there is no comprehensive political solution, which is a way out not only for Syria, but for all neighboring countries. Thus, it is not surprising that the Zionist entity, while it is receiving blows, continues its feverish efforts to keep Syria in its deteriorating situation and prevent any possibility that it stands again, and the enemies of a political solution in Syria, in their different types and forms, are helping the Zionist entity with that.

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NEUER BEITRAG29.01.2024, 07:20 Uhr
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Syrien: Aktuelle politische Situation + ihre Hintergründe Kassioun gestern:

Kassioun Editorial 1159: How Do We Prepare for a Possible US Withdrawal?

Whether US forces in remain in Iraq and Syria or withdraw therefrom is not determined by US internal electoral conflicts, but rather by the grand strategies of how Washington and its dollar elite manage its global struggle to maintain its hegemony.

More concretely, with regard to our region, what determines whether to remain or withdraw is the US’s comprehensive chaos plan in the region, which Kassioun covered extensively in past editorials. This plan is not being treated as the only way out of the American-Zionist defeat in Gaza, as much as a temporary way out of a much more massive crisis, which is the possibility of the entire region getting out of US bondage, with a huge impact on the overall US global hegemony.

Undoubtedly, the escalation in the blows served to US forces throughout the region, as well as the escalation of the political attack – popular and official – on the continued presence of its forces, whether in Iraq or in Syria, as well as the escalation of public rejection within the US of the continuation of “forever wars”, are all pressing factors towards withdrawal.

Nevertheless, if we assume that Washington is convinced of the necessity of its withdrawal, it will implement it in a specific way that allows the creation of a black hole that has ISIS as one tool, though not the only one. That is, if Washington decides to withdraw, it will try to turn this withdrawal into a detonator for a new large-scale explosion.

The US achieving its goal is not an inevitable fate. On the contrary, there still is a possibility of encircling it, and it is achievable. What is happening around and in Afghanistan after the withdrawal, and despite all its defects, problems, and even misfortunes, is an example of the process of gradual encirclement.

For us in Syria, there are two levels of preparatory work necessary for a possible US withdrawal.
The first is the level of action of international and regional powers, especially Astana, where the statements of officials of each of its three countries reveal not only that these countries are pressuring for a US exit, but also that they estimate that the US will try to leave behind chaos and that its chaos is “manageable” and can be encircled within a short period of time.

The second and more important level is that Syrian patriotic forces must prepare with all that is necessary to deal with this possibility. Primarily, it must not be led into igniting internal conflicts, the explosion and renewal of which the US is setting up the stage.

The main key is national reunification based on a comprehensive political solution through the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254. In addition to staying away once and for all from falling into the illusion of all forms of Western and US promises, which the facts have proven sufficiently and with ample evidence that they are false. The first to fall victim to those false promises are those who consider themselves closest to the Americans, starting with Europe, all the way to any ally of the US anywhere in the world.

The possibility of a US withdrawal is high, and though it carries with it risks of plans of detonation with the withdrawal, it is a step forward in creating the proper conditions for reuniting Syria and the Syrian people. It is also an additional step towards undermining US hegemony, and with it the hegemony of extremists who reject the political solution in Syria, in all their forms.

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NEUER BEITRAG12.02.2024, 19:18 Uhr
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Syrien: Aktuelle politische Situation + ihre Hintergründe Kassioun gestern:

Kassioun Editorial 1161: Will the Syrian File Move?

Most those following the Syrian file agree that it is “currently frozen”. When looking for an explanation, what comes up is talk about the “Israeli” aggression in Gaza that has been ongoing for over four months and the accompanying major tensions in the region. Prior to that, the explanation was the earthquake and its consequences, and before that the Ukrainian war and the major contradictions it produced (and, in fact, clarified), and so on.

The common logic among all these explanations is to say that external circumstances, and they alone, are the primary determinant of whether or not the Syrian file will move. This logic fits perfectly with those who opened their sails from the outset, waiting for external winds (specifically westerly) to be responsible for the movement and its direction.

This applies to extremists on both sides. The first side, which has a constant illusion possible reconciliation with the West under the table via “step for step”. The same applies to its opposite in appearance, which still begs for Western support even though it has begun to understand (though has not yet fully) that the West has abandoned it completely, and that it is not a party to the “step for step” project.

External circumstances are, without a doubt, a major player in local equations, but they do not become a decisive factor until we, the Syrians, give up our role and our right to self-determination. The right to self-determination has never been a gift or charity from anyone, but is always snatched back.

Syrians snatching back their right to self-determination requires a political solution that restores the unity of Syria and Syrians and expels foreign forces from Syria. The only way to this end is the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254. Within this understanding, political forces (of all categories) should work on two levels:

First: The illusions of “step for step” must be eliminated as soon as possible. In addition to the fact that the West is unable to implement its projects, not only in Syria, but in the entire region, these projects do not guarantee the unity of Syria and Syrians. Rather, quite the opposite, they guarantee the continuation and deepening of the crisis leading to division and quashing any subsequent role for Syria. In parallel, the Syrian opposition must also get rid of the illusions it attaches to the West, particularly Washington, which has proven in every possible way that it is not interested in achieving any stability of any kind in Syria. Quite the opposite, it is relevant to the West and of an interest to it for the comprehensive hybrid chaos in Syria and in the entire region to deepen.

Second: Based on this understand, patriotic Syrians must benefit from the new international and regional balances, but not merely by monitoring them and waiting for their outcomes, as the battle will go on for years, and part of it is deepening the devastation in Syria so it would be impossible for it to rise again. Therefore, the actual benefit will be through activating the right to self-determination by moving to the space of taking initiatives and positive actions, and searching for solutions and formats that will bring Syria and Syrians to the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254, and through it to comprehensive, radical change.

Will the Syrian file move? No, not if we continue to wait for the external winds. Their failure to move does not mean that the file should stand still, but rather it means more crisis and devastation. And yes, the file will move right away at the moment patriotic Syrians decide to take the initiative. This because the international and regional circumstance is appropriate now and has been appropriate for years. However, the necessary condition for investing in it is that there be patriotic will that requires making concessions to the Syrian people, some of which are painful, but inevitable. Those concerned with making those concessions will make them in any case in the end, if not for the sake of the Syrian people, then to external powers.

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NEUER BEITRAG26.02.2024, 02:35 Uhr
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Soso - die Cui-bobo-Frage kam schon vor fast einem Jahrzehnt auf diesen Primärverdacht - jW heute:

OPCW: IS verantwortlich für Giftgasangriff in Syrien

Den Haag. Die Organisation für das Verbot chemischer Waffen (OPCW) hat die dschihadistische Organisation »Islamischer Staat« als Verursacher des Senfgasangriffs 2015 im syrischen Marea identifiziert. In der am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Untersuchung kommt die OPCW zu dem Schluss, »dass es hinreichende Gründe für die Annahme gibt, dass Einheiten des Islamischen Staates in Irak und der Levante (ISIL) den Chemiewaffenangriff vom 1. September 2015 in Marea, Syrien, verübt haben«. Mit Verweis auf Giftgasangriffe der Regierung von Baschar Al-Assad hatte die NATO ihr militärisches Vorgehen gegen Syrien gerechtfertigt.(jW)

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NEUER BEITRAG26.02.2024, 02:40 Uhr
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Syrien: Aktuelle politische Situation + ihre Hintergründe In diesem Kontext spiegele ich auch mal die beiden letzten Kassioun-Editorials:

Posted Feb 18, 2024

Kassioun Editorial 1162: Why Are They Celebrating the “Anti-Normalization Act”?

A few days ago, the US House of Representatives passed a bill titled the “Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act”, which would guarantee preventing US federal officials from undertaking any activity that recognizes the Syrian government. The Act, which is still a bill that needs to pass the US Senate to become a law, would also expand and tighten the sanctions imposed on Syria.

The rejoicing and joy with which some of those considered Syrian opposition receive this bill brings to mind their rejoicing of the Caesar Act and how much they defended it and all the sanctions imposed on Syria by the US and EU. Those still insist on defending the sanctions, even though they have proven to be neither relevant to toppling the regime, nor to reaching a political solution. Rather, the sanctions are in place to achieve only two things:

First: Deepening the Syrian people’s crisis and suffering, bolstering the de facto partition, and reinforcing criminal activities in all their forms, all as part of working on the hybrid comprehensive chaos in Syria and the region.

Second: Utilizing “sanctions” as a tool within a process that does not aim to topple the regime or reach a political solution according to 2254, but exactly to “changing the regime’s behavior” within the framework of the “step for step” project, within which there is nothing relevant to the interest of Syria and Syrians – and implicitly the Syrian opposition – but the interest of Washington and its allies.

These same celebrants have always “preached” to us that the US possesses 99% of the cards, and they presented this as an axiom and something that goes without saying, which should be accepted as is. However, they did not explain why those who possess the cards need to resort to sanctions or the “Anti-Normalization Act”.

In any case, apart from the free elations by the US’s mouthpieces, which have always reflected more pain and suffering for Syrians, it is necessary to understand the actual context within which these American steps come.

The essence of the matter is still represented by the “step for step” and “changing the regime’s behavior” project, which does not change the distribution of tools between those used for enticement and intimidation, and those that constitute huge smoke bombs to cover up what is going on under the table.

What should be given real attention – in the bill under consideration, and in the overall American and European behavior over the past few years – is that the Western side is continuously shifting in how it deals with the Syrian issue, so the equation becomes limited to two sides only: itself (the West) and the regime. The tools of this equation are sanctions and anti-normalization on the one hand, and changing behavior on the other; and the equation’s solution is “step for step”, which means burying 2254 once and for all, and burying any hope of reuniting Syria and its people and removing foreign forces therefrom through radical and comprehensive political change by the Syrian people and in their interest. It goes without saying that the “Syrian opposition” is not a party to this “concoction”.

As the Syrian crisis became more complicated and deepened over two decades and more, the objective need has evolved over time from radical reform to radical change. In parallel, the mechanisms for solving the crisis have evolved from the possibilities of an internal solution to internationalization, and it has now reached a new situation for which the solution has become a real one that restores the country’s unity. This solution necessarily goes through ending whatever role the US has within the equation, primarily based on the interest of the Syrian people, as well as the overlap of that interest with the interests of Astana, China, and the main Arab countries.

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NEUER BEITRAG26.02.2024, 02:43 Uhr
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Posted Feb 25, 2024

Kassioun Editorial 1163: They Do Not Want a Solution!

Kassioun’s last editorial took an initial look at the US bill titled the “Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act”, which passed in the US House of Representatives on February 14th, with completion of the process of its enactment requiring the Senate’s approval and then the US President’s ratification, a process that is expected to be completed before the end of 2024.

What should be noted with regard to this bill, and away from the usual media coverage model within which it is promoted, is that it stipulates the tightening of sanctions pursuant to the Caesar Act and extending them until the end of 2032, where the Caesar Act was set to expire, according to its text, in June 2025.

What is important in this new bill is that it clearly exposes the nature of US strategy on Syria for the next 5-7 years, which can be summarized by the following:
First: As long as the US objectives are not achieved in Syria, the sanctions will remain and expand, forever.

Second: This does not mean that achieving US objectives – if they are achieved – will necessarily mean lifting the sanctions. Rather, historical experience says exactly the opposite. The Iraqi example illustrates that it makes no difference to the US which regime is in power. US sanctions today, 21 years after the occupation of Iraq, are more severe than they were before its occupation. The US bullying in forcing buyers of Iraqi oil to transfer their funds to the US Federal Reserve, not to Iraq is just one example of the nature of the current sanctions on Iraq.

Third: The overall US behavior, including the sanctions and the new bill, is the stick that matches the “step for step” carrot. However, the reality is that assuming that sanctions will be lifted during or even after the implementation of the “step for step” project is a naive assumption contradicted by historical facts on the one hand, and the current facts on the other. The US, with the decline of its global hegemony, no longer possesses any tools of control and dominance, except for sanctions and comprehensive hybrid chaos with its various tools. Stability in our region does not serve the US in any way, and therefore any mirage with which it tempts the Syrian extremists leads towards further weakening of the country and its people, including weaknesses of the extremists themselves.

Finally: By pushing this new bill, the US confirms that it is not concerned with resolving the Syrian crisis, but rather with its continuation. It also confirms that sanctions are not only a tool for “behavior change”, but they are precisely a tool for changing behavior in a way that serves the continuation and deepening of the crisis, by preserving and reinforcing the part of behavior that prevents getting out of the crisis, and by sliding into new and more dangerous positions in the regional and international alignment sense, in a way that serves deepening the chaos and weakening all Syrian sides even further.

Each new day of the Syrian crisis, with the great pains it brings, confirms more and more that the West – particularly the US – does not want to solve the crisis. Instead, it is working to deepen it, and implicitly working against the implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254, regardless of the statements it makes.

At the same time, each new day confirms that solving the crisis is no longer possible except without the US and in spite of it. This will be through patriotic Syrian work that the initiative in activating the right of the Syrian people to self-determination, by benefiting from the meeting of the interests of the sides served by Syria’s stability and ending its crisis. At the forefront of those is the Astana tripartite, in cooperation with China and the main Arab countries.

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